It’s almost time for what is inarguably Hollywood’s biggest night. I know it’s been radio silence from me for a little while here, but I don’t think there’s any better time to hear from me than on my favorite holiday of the year (yes, the Oscars count as a holiday!).

Without further ado, here they are:

Being as how Oppenheimer has won virtually all of the precursor awards leading up to the Oscars, as well as its broad box office appeal, I think it’s the safest bet of the night. I really enjoyed it and appreciated the level of craft that went into making it, but I would be equally pleased if either of the Sandra Hüller vehicles, Anatomy of a Fall (YOUR GENEROSITY CONCEALS SOMETHING DIRTIER AND MEANER) or The Zone of Interest, won.

Give the man his flowers, already. He’s earned them.

This is the race I’m most conflicted about. While I’ve long been a fan of Emma Stone, I don’t want Poor Things elevated on any greater a platform than that upon which it already stands. I might make a longer post and explain in more depth at a later date, but just take my word for it for now.

While I picked Lily Gladstone and want her desperately to win, I feel like Annette Bening, Carey Mulligan, and Sandra Hüller are also deserving. We’ll see how it shakes out.

I’ve long been a fan of Murphy’s, but I wouldn’t be upset if Paul Giamatti won for his iconic performance in The Holdovers, which was one of my favorite films this year.

Since Randolph has already won every precursor award leading up to the Oscars, her win feels like a foregone conclusion. However, if Danielle Brooks won for The Color Purple I would dance with joy and say, “Look what God has done.”

I guess. I think a more inspired choice would be Ryan Gosling as Ken in Barbie or Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction, who really pulled at my heart strings. And let us not forget Robert De Niro’s quiet menacing in Killers of the Flower Moon, in which he does some of the best work we’ve seen from him this century.

I’ll burn something if this falls any other way, except maybe in the case of The Holdovers or Past Lives.

I don’t know, I just have a feeling. Also, American Fiction was the only film that I remember making me laugh out loud this year, so that counts for something.

I bet France is kicking themselves right now, but they deserve to lose for submitting The Taste of Things for consideration over Anatomy of a Fall.

I’m still rooting for The Boy and the Heron, which would be the most inspired choice here. But this category rarely rewards the most deserving film.

Too topical not to win, especially following Navalny’s win last year. I’ve read that Bobi Wine: The People’s President might be a dark horse in this particular race.

No other choice would be fitting or appropriate here, except maybe Killers of the Flower Moon.

Billie supremacy. Give her a second one.

This one was tough for me to pick. Oppenheimer is a safe bet in almost any race tonight, but there was also some excellent cinematography work done in Maestro (God, that one shot where Felicia is watching Leonard from the edge of the stage and his literal shadow consumes her…pure cinematic storytelling genius), Poor Things (as much as it pains me), and Killers of the Flower Moon.

Poor Things would also be a good choice here, but I’d be remiss to vote against Barbie and Jacqueline Durran.

This is not a contest. The editing in Oppenheimer made a 3-hour film feel like half that length. Anxiety-inducing and utterly riveting.

They’ll without a doubt throw Maestro a bone here, as it’s unlikely to win in any other category. Which is really sad because it’s really a remarkable film, but the deck is stacked this year with a lot of great films and performances.

Poor Things is also a contender, but I can’t vote against Barbie here.

Oppenheimer is the favorite to win, but I’ll never not be haunted by the sound in The Zone of Interest.

I don’t know, it seemed like a safe bet.

Okay, so this is the only nominated film in this category I managed to watch in time, but I can’t imagine anything surpassing it. Truly magnificent.

Everything I’ve read points in the direction of Wes Anderson here, so fingers crossed.

I picked The ABCs of Book Banning but Nai Nai & Wài Pó literally brought tears to my eyes so I want it to win with all my heart.

Alright, y’all…just under an hour to go until showtime. See y’all on the flip side.

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